The ICM survey for The Mail on Sunday carried out in the constituency puts the Tories on 43%, four points ahead of Labour on 39%, with the Liberal Democrats trailing on 16%.

According to the paper, the figures represent a 10% swing since the last General Election and would turn Labour's 7,078 majority into a Conservative majority of well over 1,000.

Worryingly for Labour, the party would fare even worse in a General Election with 49% saying that they would vote Tory in a national poll, as against 33% for Labour and 15% for the Lib Dems.

:: The candidates standing in the by-election are:

Edward Timpson (Conservative);

Tamsin Dunwoody (Labour);

Elizabeth Shenton (Lib Dem);

Robert Smith (Green Party);

Paul Thorogood (Cut Tax on Diesel);

David Roberts (English Democrats);

Gemma Garrett (Ind);

Mark Walklate (Ind);

The Flying Brick (Monster Raving Loony);

Mike Nattrass (Ukip).



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